Beat the Odds in a World of Failing Projects
In a world where ambition often outpaces excellent execution, large-scale projects such as bridges, airports, rail systems, or digital platforms can be challenging to get right.
In “How Big Things Get Done”, Oxford professor Bent Flyvbjerg and journalist Dan Gardner dive into why so many megaprojects fail and what separates the rare successes from the overwhelming number of failures.
The numbers are sobering: 92% of megaprojects are over budget, late, or both.
Even more alarming, a mere 0.5% are delivered on time, on budget, and with the promised benefits.
But Flyvbjerg and Gardner aren’t just critical voices. They offer clear, research-backed strategies for doing things differently and more effectively.
The Iron Law of Megaprojects
Flyvbjerg distils decades of research into what he calls the Iron Law of Megaprojects: “Over budget, over time, under benefits—over and over again.”
It isn’t a fluke. It’s a pattern; one rooted in flawed assumptions, rushed execution, and a consistent failure to plan for complexity.
Too often, teams leap into action before truly understanding what success requires. Decision-makers commit early, stake reputations, and continue down paths they should’ve exited long ago.
The Commitment Fallacy
It leads to what the authors call the Commitment Fallacy: the tendency to stick with a bad idea because we’ve already invested in it.
In psychological terms, this is a classic sunk-cost trap. In megaprojects, it results in ballooning costs and missed deadlines.
Take the Berlin Brandenburg Airport in Germany, for example. Initially slated to open in 2011 with a budget of €2 billion, it finally opened in 2020 at nearly €7 billion.
Project leaders ignored repeated warnings about flawed planning, outdated systems, and misaligned contractors. Their unwillingness to pivot led to years of public embarrassment and spiralling expenses.
Think Slow, Act Fast
One of Flyvbjerg’s most counterintuitive yet powerful principles is: Think Slow, Act Fast.
In other words, don’t rush the planning stage. Spend time upfront designing the right approach, understanding the risks, and mapping logistics. Then, once construction or execution begins, move swiftly and decisively.
A classic case is the Empire State Building. Built during the Great Depression, it was completed in just 13 months, ahead of schedule and 17% under budget.
Why?
Everything was meticulously planned. Materials were ordered in advance, workers were scheduled with military precision, and execution followed a well-thought-out blueprint.
In stark contrast, consider the Sydney Opera House; a masterpiece of architecture but a masterclass in poor project management.
Originally budgeted at A$7 million and scheduled for completion in four years, it ended up costing A$102 million and taking 14 years.
The fatal error?
Building began before the designs were finalised.
A Few Other Real-World Examples of Hits and Misses
Let’s examine a few other megaprojects that either reinforce or challenge Flyvbjerg’s findings:
Hit: Apple Stores
When Apple launched its retail stores, critics were sceptical.
However, Apple defied expectations by applying the “Think Right to Left” principle, starting with the end user experience and reverse-engineering every store element around it.
Prototypes were secretly tested and refined before any public launch. The outcome? A scalable, repeatable, modular model that redefined retail.
Miss: California High-Speed Rail
Initially budgeted at $33 billion, this much-hyped infrastructure project has ballooned to over $100 billion.
Delays, land disputes, scope changes, and inconsistent leadership have plagued the project. As of June 2025, it is still under active construction in the Central Valley, spanning 119 miles across five counties.
While significant challenges like cost overruns and political opposition persist, construction is progressing with the goal of operational testing of the initial electrified line by 2028.
This project is an emblem of what happens when politics outruns planning.
Hit: Toyota Production System
Toyota’s legendary manufacturing approach exemplifies what Flyvbjerg calls “Find Your Lego”, breaking large projects into repeatable, modular components.
Rather than reinventing every vehicle from scratch, Toyota built cars using standard parts and interchangeable systems.
The result? Speed, consistency, and quality on a global scale.
Miss: The Big Dig (Boston)
Designed to reroute Boston’s central highway underground, the Big Dig was projected to cost $2.6 billion.
It finished 15 years later at over $15 billion.
Problems included shifting objectives, poor oversight, design flaws, and misaligned contractors.
While the final result improved traffic flow, the project became synonymous with how not to execute large-scale infrastructure.
Hit: Crossrail (Elizabeth Line, UK)
Europe’s largest rail infrastructure project suffered delays and cost overruns, rising from £14.8 billion to £18.8 billion.
However, unlike many other projects, Crossrail recovered by applying better governance, improved communication, and lessons from its early missteps.
The finished product has been widely praised, and the experience is now being used to guide future UK infrastructure efforts.
Miss: Healthcare.gov
When the U.S. launched Healthcare.gov in 2013, it was plagued by technical failures.
The problem?
Rushed development, poor integration, and a lack of coordinated ownership.
After public backlash, a cross-functional rescue team, including engineers from Amazon and Google, applied modular thinking and rapid response strategies. Within weeks, the site was functional.
It was a crisis turned into a salvageable case study in agile intervention.
Seven Principles for Getting Big Things Done
Flyvbjerg and Gardner offer seven practical principles for managing complexity, uncertainty, and scale:
1. Understand Your Odds
Most big projects fail. Start from this premise, not from unquestioning optimism. Plan as if everything that can go wrong might, and then ask how to reduce that risk intelligently.
2. Plan Slow, Act Fast
Don’t confuse motion with progress. Thorough planning, factoring in logistics, materials, regulations, and contingencies, sets the stage for rapid and efficient execution.
3. Think Right to Left
Instead of planning forward (start to finish), plan backwards from your desired outcome. Reverse-engineering your goal clarifies what must be true for success to occur.
4. Find Your Lego
Break down the project into modular, replicable parts. Don’t reinvent the wheel if you can reuse proven solutions. It improves adaptability and reduces the risk of failure.
5. Be a Team Maker
Success isn’t just about systems; it’s about people. Build a cohesive, collaborative team with shared goals, psychological safety, and a culture of accountability.
6. Master the Unknown Unknowns
You can’t predict every obstacle, but you can build in buffers, flexibility, and feedback loops. Create space for adaptation rather than pretending you’ve forecasted everything perfectly.
7. Know That Your Biggest Risk Is You
Overconfidence, ego, and bias are silent project killers. Challenge assumptions, seek outside input, and be willing to change course even if it’s uncomfortable.
Why It Matters Now More Than Ever
The need for massive, transformational projects, whether in climate infrastructure, healthcare systems, or digital innovation, has never been greater.
But our ability to execute them well hasn’t kept pace.
“How Big Things Get Done” clarifies that success isn’t about charisma or optimism.
It’s about discipline, humility, and innovative design. The most ambitious visions won’t matter if we can’t bring them to life and avoid repeating the same costly mistakes.
Whether you’re a project manager, startup founder, policymaker, or simply someone responsible for turning vision into reality, the lessons in this book are essential.
Conclusion
Big ideas drive the world forward. However, how we execute them determines whether we leave behind a legacy or a mess.
Before you greenlight your next big project, ask yourself:
Have we thought slowly enough?
Are we clear on what success looks like?
Can we break this down into simpler, repeatable parts?
Is our team truly aligned?
And, most importantly, are we humble enough to admit what we don’t know?
When the answers to those questions are honest and well-considered, you’re already ahead of the 92%.
Until next time, may you beat the odds.
Dion Le Roux
References
Flyvbjerg, B., & Gardner, D. (2023). How Big Things Get Done. Currency.
Harvard Business Review. (2014). Why the Healthcare.gov Launch Failed.
McKinsey & Company. (2017). Rewriting the Playbook for Project Delivery.
Readingraphics. (n.d.). Book Summary – How Big Things Get Done. Retrieved from https://readingraphics.com/book-summary-how-big-things-get-done
The Guardian. (2020). Berlin Brandenburg Airport: Nine Years Late and Billions Over Budget.
The Wisest Words. (n.d.). “How Big Things Get Done” by Bent Flyvbjerg and Dan Gardner: 2000-Word Book Summary. Retrieved from https://thewisestwords.com/how-big-things-get-done-summary
Toyota Global. (n.d.). Toyota Production System Overview.